Jan. 18th, 2011

profi: (Лаврентий)

К некоторым мнениям, опубликованным "газетой для думающих людей", стоит (ИМХО) прислушаться.

В одном и том же выпуске, рядом, две статьи. Тема - одна. Крайне неприятная для нашей страны.

(1) Israeli officials fear that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will announce on Tuesday during a visit to Jericho that Russia recognizes a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders.

Officials became concerned following an interview given by Fatah official Nabil Sha'ath to the Al-Hayat newspaper on Tuesday. Sha'ath said that Medvedev would affirm the Soviet Union's 1988 recognition of a Palestinian state - a recognition that was based on the declaration of independence made by Yassir Arafat that year.

(2) The decision of the General Assembly will create a new strategic reality. After the international community has its say, the anti-Israel wave will become stronger and there will be legitimacy for sanctions against Israel by organizations and countries. International public opinion is even liable to show understanding for violent acts against us. The Israeli government, we can assume, will react with partial annexation and military action. Meanwhile the split within Israeli society will grow, so that parallel to the external distress this time there is liable to be an internal rift as well. This is a realistic scenario. Responsible leadership must prevent it. In his Bar-Ilan speech, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in effect accepted the principle of dividing the Land of Israel into two states. Implementation of this principle, even in the framework of the 1967 borders, is a complex matter.

Security issues such as Israeli control of airspace, demilitarization and supervision; borders and territorial exchanges; timetables for evacuation (this is a step that will take years); financial assistance to refugees and evacuees; the question of the arrangement in Jerusalem; the Gaza Strip; the nature of the relations between the states in the future, etc., require localized solutions. A sweeping decision by the UN General Assembly is liable to distance us from an agreement and only heighten the conflict. It is doubtful whether direct negotiations will produce an agreement. The Israeli coalition structure, the weakness of the Palestinian leadership, the complexity of the issue and the shrinking timetable before possible recognition by the UN of a Palestinian state will make it very difficult to achieve an agreement by consensus. At most we will see an exchange of accusations between the parties, whose objective is to support the vote of the General Assembly or to prevent it.

Уриэль Райхман - умный человек. Я согласен почти со всем, что он написал в этой статье. Более того, я сам писал практически то же самое недели две назад - в [livejournal.com profile] centre_right_il .

Я не могу согласиться с тем, что Райхман уповает на какую-то неведомую чудо-инициативу от американцев. Я не верю в то, что американцы вообще на это способны (трезво оценивая интелелктуальный и моральный потенциал сегодняшних американских лидеров). Я считаю, что Израиль должен вести процесс сам. Ставить реалистичные задачи и быть ведущим, но не ведомым. С другой стороны, я (как, очевидно, и Райхман) не жду ничего подобного от наших лидеров. Тупик?
 

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